Stage-Structured, Distributional Prediction of IVF Outcomes with Conditional Updating
Alexander Craig, Laura Wartschinski, Mathew Eyre, Ivan Davidson, Michael Christensen, Tobias Wolfram
Explore a transparent, stage-by-stage estimate from retrieval to live birth. Change the inputs to see how the modeled funnel responds.
This calculator predicts your chances at each stage of IVF treatment, from egg retrieval through live birth. It was built on over half a million observations from real IVF cycles and clinical studies.
This diagram shows how many eggs and embryos you might have at each stage of IVF. The blue bars show what continues to the next stage. The orange bars show what’s lost at each step. Not all eggs fertilize, not all embryos develop, and not all lead to pregnancy.
50% of patients who match your fertility profile achieve these results or better at each stage of IVF.
Chance of one or more live births: 92%.
Click on any stage to see detail
| Higher | 39 | 32 | 23 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 7 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | 20 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |
| Lower | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Our Science
Keep a personalized report of your estimates at every stage, based on the calculator settings above.